In this presentation to the Pamwin Conference 2009 we were asked to gaze into our crystal ball to see how the public subsidy system may change after the 2008/11 period. The presentation looked at historical trends in the subsidy system to identify the trajectory. In concluding that we would be moving from a grant-based system to a debt-based regime it also highlighted the possibility that the new world could involve rent deregulation, a shift from capital subsidy to revenue subsidy and increased “churn” of the social rented stock.